Analyzing Your Hands

If you go through your hand histories alone, it's akin to constantly asking yourself what the color of a certain wall is. You'll need someone else to come into the room that you can confer with or you may go the rest of your life unaware you're color blind.

You can get another low-cost perspective on your play by contributing particular hand histories to the PocketFives forums or organizing group review sessions with your best poker colleagues. However, if you're by yourself one day and want to go through some of your deep runs yourself, I'd encourage you to look for these occurrences. They came up repeatedly while I was going through my students' hand histories over the last weeks.

Not Looking at the Flop and Turn Continuation-Betting Statistics

On your HUD, you should have four statistics: Flop C-bet, Turn C-bet, Flop Fold to C-bet, and Turn Fold to C-bet. These four are crucial to your success.

Many people tell me, "I have them on my pop-up HUDs. I check them." I tell them, just for kicks, to put them on their main HUD and watch a hand history. Every time they are facing a continuation-bet or about to continuation-bet themselves, I have them read out the pertinent statistics.

What they find often shocks them. "This guy folds all the time on the turn and I never double-barreled against him!?"

Most players get into some unprofitable habits. This is one I see all the time. For reference, an honest fold to continuation bet statistic is 60%+. This indicates someone is folding most times when they miss the board. The less a person folds to that continuation-bet, the less honest they are versus continuation-bets.

You'll find many people who have a Fold to Flop C-bet of 30%, but a Fold to Turn C-bet of 65%. These people are fairly easy to figure out. They float the flop often hoping you'll check/fold on the turn. You must double-barrel versus these players if you bluffed the flop; otherwise, you are maximizing your losses.

Many people will find when they examine another players' continuation betting statistics that they never double-barrel. Their Turn C-bet goes down 30%-ish, which generally means they only fire when they have a hand. They should be floating against this player more, but instead they referred to some generalized rule of not floating without a ton of backdoor or over-card equity.

They might also find a certain player always double-barrels, but routinely they just called flop and folded turn. This, once again, is a fine way to maximize your losses. Look for it and stamp it out.

Not Stealing Enough Blinds

I still see so many guys adhere to the same stack size rules that were purported to work back in 2007. Breaking news: the game of poker has changed. People are better now. You can't play the exact same strategy every day, all day, across every table anymore and expect to make a profit.

Look for these things. When you open, take the amount you're risking. How much was your bet size? Divide that number by the size of the pot you will win if everybody folds. This will be the size of the pot with your bet in it with all the blinds before anyone else does anything. This fraction will give you the percentage of the time your raise needs to work.

Now look at people's Fold to Steal numbers. Say you have one person who folds 81% of the time to steals in the big blind. The small blind folds 74% to steals. Multiply these two numbers like this: 0.74 * 0.81. See? It's just like multiplying fractions in school. I practically dropped out after ninth grade math, so if I can get this, I know you can.

This number you will produce will be how often both players in the blinds fold. If that number is higher than how often your bet needs to work mathematically to turn a profit, than you can raise/fold any two cards from the button: 8-2, two UNO cards, aces, it doesn't matter. You should have at least seriously thought about raising in this situation. If you repeatedly fold because of a starting hand or because of a fear that there's no statistical evidence substantiating, you should be worried.

If somebody has a low Fold to Steal, check if they call most of the time they defend. If they do call a lot, see their Fold to Continuation-Bet number. Many guys who "defend" the blinds are really just trying to hit and checking out if they don't. Stealing versus them is even more profitable because they will be handing you more chips on the majority of the boards they miss.

Three-Betting When There Is No Clear Reason To

Here are the reasons you should be three-betting: for value, as a semi-bluff, or as a complete bluff.

Sounds simple, doesn't it? Well, it isn't; otherwise, we wouldn't be so good at screwing it up. When you see one of your three-bets on the game film, ask yourself for what reasons you were three-betting. If it was for value, you sure as hell better have a plan for the four-bet. Many guys three-bet a hand because it's usually a hand good enough to do so with, only to realize after they've flubbed the hand that their opponent never flats or four-bets with worse. They've allowed their opponent to play perfectly against them.

If you three-bet with the intention to fold to a four-bet because you know your opponent will flat with the inferior portions of his range and four-bet better, that's fine, but make sure you knew that going in.

If you're semi-bluffing, it should be because the person has a low four-bet. You know if you take the lead from them pre-flop, they're not going to fight to take it back. It also helps if they are honest statistically facing flop or turn continuation-bets and your stack has enough ammunition to make it that far.

With how much people flat from shorter stacks now, this is a great way to avoid multi-way pots where you will have to hit the flop to proceed. Hitting hands is boring! Get it heads-up where it's likely both of you will miss and take the pot from them.

If you're three-betting as a bluff, make sure a host of factors add-up. Was their fold to three-bet higher than 60%? Were they raising a wide range from that spot so you know a good deal of his starting selection is going into the muck or was he opening only 10-10+? Was his stack size awkward to four-bet or flat from? Did you have an ace in your hand to block much of his four-bet getting-it-in range?

Not Anticipating the Check-Raise

The check-raise is back in vogue within the MTT community. Not only did I see more check-raise bluffs in all the SCOOP hand histories I've analyzed, but I also saw a real lack of players who knew how to deal with it.

Look for this when you're reviewing your hands: if someone has a check-raise of 10% or lower, that tends to be pretty honest. If you think about it, around one time in ten you will hit a hand good enough to check-raise bloat the pot OOP, such as a nut flush draw or a set. Against these people, you should have been a little more trusting, especially on boards where there are not many clear hands they could be semi-bluffing with.

If someone has a check-raise of 20% or higher, you need to be suspicious. You do not hit a hand one time in five that is good enough to blow up the pot out of position. Versus these players, it's a great idea to set up a three-bet flop bluff. It's an even greater idea if their Raise Versus C-bet is high as well (a good statistic to coordinate with to make sure the check-raise wasn't just a fluke).

Versus these kinds of players, you should try continuation-betting the exact amount you opened for pre-flop, especially on paired boards. This seems to activate their check-raise response systems. Slam the three-bet door on them and make sure your bet forces them to four-bet move all-in with their bluff in order to prove you wrong.

Look for if you set up any of these plays intuitively or if your play caused you to miss out on what could have been the game-changing hand.

It's been a great pleasure to write to you,see you soon and GL on the tables.

SNG: Why These Games Are Great For Building A Bankroll

Sit And Go Tournaments are usually defined as a poker tournament with no fixed starting time.
When enough players sit down, the game begins. These can range in size from 2 players to more
than 300. This course focuses on 1 table tournaments (sometimes referred to as STTs or ‘Single
Table Tournaments’ )featuring 9 or 10 players, you can think of this as the ‘standard’ SNG, with
the many size, structure and betting variations coming from this base.

Payouts for 1 table SNGs are usually for 3 places in a 50% / 30% / 20% of the prize pool format.
This has a huge effect on the ‘correct’ strategy (from a mathematical perspective), which many of
your opponents will not understand this is a key reason that SNG tournaments are so profitable.

There are actually several reasons why SNG tournaments are a great choice for players looking to
build their bankroll. Firstly, these games are attractive to inexperienced players. If you think about
when you first discovered online poker, the 1 table games looked like a great way to learn without
spending too much in one go.

A second reason these are good bankroll builders is the speed of the games make them ideal to
divide up into short and sharp sessions. Add to this the fact that (with the right strategy) they are
the easiest games of all to multitable and you have a situation where you can increase the volume of games to turn on hat ‘money tap’ any time you please.

My final reason is that your opponents simply have more opportunities to make mistakes in SNGs
than in cash games. The shift in strategy from one stage of the game to another is not obvious, and
errors can get expensive. Good players do not stay playing SNGs for long the lure of cash game profits or the big prize multitable tournaments soon sees them leave, making these games a consistent profit source.

It's been a great pleasure to wrihte for you,see you soon and GL on the tables.

Some of my older wins

Bankroll managment

You may have read stories about successful pros who rose to the top on 30- or 40-buy-in bankrolls.

Well guess what? It’s selection bias. They got lucky. Literally hundreds of players who could have

been just as successful did the same thing and went broke. If you play on 30 buy-ins, it’s only a matter of time before you too bust out.So what can you do? First, assume solid 6-max pros almost never

suffer 30 buy-in downswings due to chance alone. This is not true, butit’s a great assumption. 

If you find yourself in a big downswing, ask how much you are tilting and stub bornly sticking to tough games.Then ask whether the game has changed. And don’t forget collusion.

This is one of those delicate topics that all the “in” people don’t like to talk about. But the fact is

, if Andy and Danny get on instant messenger and play best-hand against you, you will take a major hit right in the win rate.The best way to deal with a small downswing is to tighten up a little while you determine whether you have played well. Run hands by your poker friends, your coach, or the online forums. Review stats like VP$IP, PFR, 3-Bet Percentage, and C-Bet Percentage, and analyze them by position—not just as averages—to help figure out if you are making consistent mistakes.

The best way to deal with a big downswing is to take a few days off. Relax, exercise, sleep, and get your head back in the game.After a few losses, you should step down. There comes a point in a

downswing where you may be playing badly and not know it. In general, after losing 20 buy-ins, not
only should you take a break and analyze your recent game, you should also seriously consider dropping down a limit or two.So how big a bankroll do you need? Clearly—and perhaps surprisingl—it is more than 40 buy-ins. But what is the magic number for an online pro who doesn’thave much room to move down and still make a good living? This number depends on a great many factors, such as how much you think games might change, how aggressive you are, your risk tolerance, your win rate, your living expenses, how much you tilt, and how good you are at stepping down.
It also assumes you don’t have a job or a trust fund to replenish your your bankroll. 


No matter how you slice it,it’s just an estimation. No one can know your true number.
But who are we to deprive you of our recommendation? If forced to give you a specific bankroll number, ours is:100 buy-ins You may not like that recommendation. That’s okay. Our goal with
this  has been to challenge you to see situations in new ways—to see all 64 squares if you will—and to help you survive and thrive in the online poker world. If this recommendation sways you to keep 60 buy-ins in your bankroll instead of 30 buy-ins, then we have done our job. We have increased your chances of survival dramatically, and even more importantly, we have made you think. 

You need way more than you think you need. You need way more than the successful pros say you need. You need way more than the statisticians say you need.

You need a lot.

Protecting your poker bankroll and more:

I'm not a strong advocate of bankroll science. In fact, I think that most things said about bankrolls are not science at all.
They are mostly just homespun wisdom. I'm going to start by telling you something that you know is true in your heart. You should never criticize a person for taking "too much" risk, so
long as that person understands the risk being taken and has the best of it. The more risk you take, the more likely you are to capture sudden wealth, and the more likely you are to be
damaged in the pursuit.
The risk is up to you.
That's important, and I'll repeat it. The more risk you accept, the more likely you are to suddenly prosper and the more likely you are to suddenly go broke. So, you see, it's your choice. What's an unacceptable risk for you may be tolerable for someone else. It's
a personal decision. It's up to them. And it's up to you.
Also, you should be aware that there are mathematically derived methods that can be used to maximize your chance of success once you've defined your goals. Although we've discussed these concepts before, we won't deal with them today.

Not everyone needs a bankroll.

Players who only expect to play occasionally, or who are playing recreational, can just bring whatever they can afford whenever they can afford it. Bankrolls are things you build and are designed for people without infinite assets who want to play regularly.

You must play your best game all the time.

The policy of playing your best game most of the time is the greatest destroyer of bankrolls there is. At higher-limit games, players actually seem to take turns "going on tilt." If you pass your turn quite often, without your opponents realizing it, you'll win

the most money. 
Important things you can learn if you want to succeed at poker. You are not likely to succeed if you decide to blatantly take advantage of knowledgeable opponents' super-loose play. If they're taking turns going on tilt, and you come into the game and play
perfectly stable, you won't fit in. They will resent you and often they will stopproviding you with profit.
The trick is to play along and show some fast action, too. Simulate tilt. Make them aware of it. But pass your turn when they don't notice. Among equally skilled players,the one who spends the least time on tilt (or simulating tilt) wins the most money.

Be selective about your games.
Don't routinely take the first one you see. Most of your profit will come from good games. Even most winning players lose money in tougher games.Those are fighting words, but they're true. If I could select the worst 50 percent of games that professionals played in throughout their careers, most would be losers for those sessions. It is the other 50 percent of their games - and sometimes an even much smaller portion of their games - that supply the profit for most pros. Game select ion is much more important than most players suppose.
You should be less protective of a small bankroll.
The larger your bankroll grows, the more worthy it is of protection and the less chances you should take. That's because a large bankroll would be much harder to replace from sources in the world beyond poker. You can usually get a small starting
bankroll from the "real" world, but it's unlikely that you will be able to replace an established bankroll in the same way.

The term bankroll may be one of the most important words in a poker player’s vocabulary.

Proper Bankroll Management Minimums:

$65 - $1.10 STTs
$87 - €1.10 STTs
$90 - $1.10 18-man
$128 - $1.10 45-man,

$130 - $2.20 STTs

Cash out strategy:

Pay yourself according to volume, not results.

Remove the following from your bankroll every time you play these games:

STTs: 3% of your buy in
18-man: 4% of your buy in

45-man: 5% of your buy in

When your total cash outs reach the site's minimum cash out requirements, then cash out as soon as you can.
When used together, over time, the Bankroll Management and Cash out Strategy will:

- Keep you playing at or near your optimal level. You won't have to decide what games to play. The system will do it for you.
- Ensure that you are beating the games at a high enough ROI to continue to play them.
- Keep you from facing high % fluctuations in your bankroll so your mindset is good.
- Have you making frequent cash outs no matter what your results are. This stops the endless cycle that some people have of moving up and moving down, but never cashing out!
- Allow you to plan. Your income will be easily predictable.
- Encourage you to increase your volume.

- Give you the opportunity to take an occasional shot at a bigger event and chase your dreams.

             See you soon and GL on the tables